When it comes to football handicapping, there are three essential factors that go into making a sports bet,they are Statistical, Situational, and Trend- Based handicapping.
Statistical/Fundamental Handicapping is the use of statistics, power ratings, and personnel match-ups to determine a selection. Statistical handicapping is crucial for the NFL, it does take a lot of the guess work out of handicapping and leaves little to no room for personal input.
Situational Handicapping is much more significant when making a college football bet than an NFL bet, primarily due to the age of the players, as college players are more prone to peaks and valleys. Situational Handicapping includes letdowns, look-aheads, revenge games and non-mathematical systems.Situational handicapping concentrates on how all teams have fared in a particular situation as opposed to just a particular team.
Technical/Trend- Based Handicapping generally carries less weight,it should never be the sole basis of making a wager.The easiest way to classify trend-based handicapping is to remember that trends are based on one particular team and how that team fares in different spots.
There is no right way or wrong way of handicapping, but there are right and wrong predictions.You could use a combination of 50-percent statistical Handicapping, 25-percent Situational Handicapping, and 25-percent trend-based Handicapping in deriving your selections or for the NFL you could use a 75-percent Statistical Handicapping, 15-percent Situational Handicapping, and 10-percent Trend-Based Handicapping. You could also try altering your handicapping techniques and see if your results improve.
To manage your bets you should buy or develop your own betting system and make your decisions as if you were operating a business in other words you are in for the long haul not just a short sprint.Sports betting systems refers to a set of events that when combined for a particular game for a particular sport represents a profitable betting scenario.
You could build your own system using statistical multiple regression using Microsoft excel or some other statistical program.The stronger the historical info you have the more accurate your results will be.Historical data you need to know to apply multiple regressions is: Wins, Losses, Win to Lose ratio, home game record, away game record, past ten game outcomes, win/loss streaks, injuries, team changes (new coach, loss of important player, etc.).You will never be able to call a game within 100% of accuracy but if you have the right info you are surely able to anticipate the game like the pros.
You could also buy an NFL handicapping system or use the internet to find free picks, there are many sites that offer 1 or more weekly free pick.Handicapping systems basically analyze sports books and the latest news on
NFL to provide picks. The answer to the question on whether there is an NFL handicapping system that works is yes, there are handicapping systems designed for the NFL that works but you need to remember that it isn’t entirely fool proof.Even if you use a very effective NFL handicapping system, you will still lose some time. You
need to remember that gambling is gambling and sometimes you will win while there are other times that you will lose.
NFL betting systems can effectively analyze statistics, it will not be able to analyze outside factors with regards to betting.You will want to try and do a little more research regarding the other factors that can affect that performance of a particular football team.
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